With Contract Talks Looming, Tua Tagovailoa Remains One of Football's Most Misjudged Talents

There are no shortage of opinions about what the Miami Dolphins should do about quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and his contract. How does Miami's offensive principles alter the conversation?

Opinions on Miami Dolphins fifth-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa aren’t hard to find.

The lore Tagovailoa carved out for himself as a college phenom at Alabama put the signal caller squarely in the spotlight on the nation’s biggest stage and 6 years that have passed since ‘2nd and 26’ have seen Tagovailoa take his fair share of twists and turns. And then some.

Tagovailoa was once upon a time the prized possession of a race for the No. 1 overall pick. Then, he became an injured prospect trying to prove his health in the midst of a global pandemic. The Dolphins stopped Tagovailoa from a potential lengthy slide in the 2020 draft but did him few favors in the early stages of his career. Tagovailoa underperformed and underproduced while reportedly clashing behind the scenes with his head coach and enduring nearly 12 months of trade rumors surrounding veteran passer Deshaun Watson. Yes, even during the early stages of Watson’s alleged abhorrent behavior off the field coming into the public eye.

And then, seemingly against all odds, the Dolphins chose him again. Miami fired that abrasive head coach and brought in an offensive savant to serve as the savior to the team’s supposed savior in Tagovailoa. It has largely worked. These Dolphins aren’t perfect offensively but in Mike McDaniel’s first two seasons as the team’s head coach and offensive play-caller, Miami has posted two top-6 offenses in total yardage. This organization hasn’t accomplished those heights offensively since 1993-1994.

And Tagovailoa, in spite of the injury bug creeping back to bite him again with multiple reported concussions in 2022, has been a focal point of it all. Just three passers (Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen & Jared Goff) have posted more yardage passing than Tagovailoa’s 8,172 over that stretch. Only San Francisco’s Brock Purdy averages more yards per attempt than Tua’s 8.5 (and Purdy is missing 33% of the attempts as Tagovailoa in that stretch). Purdy, Tagovailoa and Dallas’ Dak Prescott are the only three passers with an aggregate passer rating in excess of 100 since 2022.

And so all is well, one would assume while casually observing Tagovailoa and Miami’s offense from afar, in South Florida — right?

Wrong. Absolutely, positively off the mark.

Because for all of the passing yards and efficiency numbers and touchdowns, the wins have yet to come at the right time of year for Tagovailoa and the Dolphins; leaving a black cloud hanging over what is otherwise as good of a resume as Miami has seen at the quarterback position since Dan The Man was still picking guys and letting it fly.

That drought of postseason success is a sin that this iteration of the Dolphins is largely innocent in, although consecutive first round playoff exits do add a fresh sting to the wait for Miami. That dynamic paired with Tagovailoa’s status as a household name thanks to that superstardom at Alabama and the early stage narratives as a timid player — carved in large part thanks to the likes of Brian Flores, George Godsey/Charlie Frye/whoever the hell actually called plays in 2021 — leave Tagovailoa as one of the most polarizing players in all of football.

And now he’s entering a contract year, inviting in all the skepticism once again that Miami should make sure the third time is the charm and say ‘no thank you’ to more Tagovailoa. They’ll talk about the lack of a postseason breakthrough. They’ll still point to the injury concerns, as Colin Cowherd has. They’ll say Miami needs to unlock the deep ball to maximize star receivers Jaylen Waddle & Tyreek Hill; as Joel Klatt has. That one is especially spectacular, given that Tagovailoa posted a completion percentage over expectation of +10.4% (27 of 50) in 2022 on “deep passes” before a 31/61 (50.8% completion) encore in 2023. Those numbers were good for T-2nd in the NFL in completions 20+ yards downfield and 5th in the NFL in completion percentage in 2023, according to Fantasy Points Data Suite.

Whoops!

Now, make no mistake. Tagovailoa isn’t a perfect passer by any means. He has his physical limitations, both athletically and with his arm strength. But those who would point to the need for a better vertical passer to hedge or transition from Tagovailoa aren’t seeing the full picture. And as such, they certainly aren’t understanding the ideological conflict Miami must confront while debating any true merit to moving on from their young quarterback before paying him a high dollar contract.

So let’s walk through how not only Tua Tagovailoa needs Mike McDaniel and Tyreek Hill to be his best self, but McDaniel and the Dolphins currently need Tua to be theirs, too.