Raheem Mostert's New Deal Is Good Value, Even For Modern RB Standards
Raheem Mostert, for the 3rd time in as many offseasons, has signed a new contract with the Miami Dolphins. His value, amid rising production & a changing RB market, continues to be among Miami's best.
The NFL has a running back problem on its hands. As the league’s spending trends continue to skyrocket thanks to new television deals, gambling money, and expansion into new worldwide markets, we are seeing the league’s salary cap grow at a near-exponential rate. With it, individual player salaries are ballooning at an unprecedented rate as well. Look no further than one former Miami Dolphin for proof: Robert Hunt.
Offensive guards got paid offensive tackle money in free agency earlier this month; the total number of guards exceeding $20M annual average salary now equals the number of cornerbacks (long considered a premium position) with four apiece. Quarterback contracts have easily eclipsed $50M AAV. Wide receivers have reached $30M.
And then there’s the running backs.
Christian McCaffrey’s market-setting contract sits at just over $16M annually on average — a contract that was signed in 2020 while playing for the Carolina Panthers. Second place on the active RB market contract list is Alvin Kamara, who is also playing on a deal signed in 2020. It averages $15M annually.
Young standout backs Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs appeared to have some kind of breakthrough this year in free agency; managing to secure $12M+ annually in free agency to play for a new team. All of the other RB contracts that were averaging $10M+ AAV entering 2023 were extensions for a player already established in the team’s scheme before paying up. So I suppose there’s your silver lining?
Four years without a market reset is an eternity in today’s soaring cap world. And 2025’s best free agent running back to be is Cleveland’s Nick Chubb — entering his age-29 season while facing a return from a devastating knee injury that abruptly cut his 2023 campaign short. Top dollar is hard to come by for the league’s runners.
And that makes Raheem Mostert all that much more special of a value for the Dolphins, even as he gets ready to play on his third contract with the Dolphins in the last three seasons.
It was announced on Friday afternoon that Mostert and the Dolphins had signed a 1-year extension to keep the veteran running back in Miami through the end of the 2025 season. With the Dolphins looking to sustain the momentum of their offensive growth in Year 3 under Mike McDaniel, added stability in their offensive backfield feels like a no-brainer opportunity to strike on.
And that doesn’t even consider Mostert smashing the Dolphins’ single-season record for touchdowns (21) in 2023. Nor does it consider Mostert’s leadership and locker room presence. He hasn’t always been a record-setting runner. He was, once upon a time, a track standout who wedged his way into the league as an undrafted free agent out of Purdue. This in spite of logging fewer than 150 career carries for the Boilermakers. Six teams signed (and cut) Mostert within his first two seasons in the league between 2015 and 2016, including the Dolphins.
A breakthrough came in San Francisco, as team number seven afforded Mostert a breakthrough opportunity in the backfield and not just deep on the kickoff return unit. The relationship forged with Mike McDaniel in the Bay Area allowed for a return to Miami in 2022 after several seasons together; although Mostert found himself in familiar territory while recovering from a knee injury suffered in 2021 and his value among the league’s most devalued positions had nearly bottomed out.
He signed with Miami in 2022 on a 1-year, $2.125M contract. 2023 brought a 2-year contract valued at $5.6M. And now, 2024 brings another extension; this one valued at a maximum value of $9.075M with $3.71M guaranteed at signing.
What Mostert has done in his second stint is nothing short of remarkable. He’s 10th in the NFL in rushing yards over the last two seasons. He’s 5th in the NFL in rushing touchdowns over the same span. He’s among the league leaders in missed tackles forced over that period of time as well — Pro Football Focus credits him with 82 forced missed tackles. He’s missed three regular-season games since the start of 2022 after logging more than 250 snaps in a single season ONCE in his career in his previous seven seasons combined. Mostert became the first 30+ year old running back to rush for over 1,000 yards in a season since Adrian Peterson back in 2018. Frank Gore (twice) is the only other player to achieve the feat since 2009.
All those accolades, along with his first career Pro Bowl and a franchise-setting 21 total touchdowns in 2023, make the security of a new contract an obvious “want” for Mostert. And, to his credit, he earned the guaranteed money (he had none left on his current deal, which expired after 2024). He earned the pay raise, too. Mostert was scheduled to collect $2.74M in cash this season and now will presumably collect all of the $3.71M guaranteed at signing; meaning he should be facing about a $1M raise at the very least.
And after all of that, he’s still an absolutely incredible value to the Miami Dolphins. So much so that he may continue to be one of the best “bang for your buck” players under contract.
Consider this.
Mostert, assuming he reaches all incentives and achieves the maximum value of this new contract extension with the Dolphins, will have an average salary of just over $4.5M per season between 2024 and 2025. That value would rank 414th among all active contracts across the league according to Spotrac. Among second (or more) contract players in the league, it values him among peers such as LB Tyrel Dodson (SEA), OL Ryan Bates (CHI), and CB Amik Robertson (DET). Among running backs, he now ranks 17th in the NFL at best; his max value checks in just in front of rookie Jahmyr Gibbs and veteran Austin Ekeler.
Mostert’s maximum potential earnings are nearly 1/4th of the market value of top running backs. And the man who Miami reportedly flirted with acquiring to supplant him last fall, Indianapolis’ Jonathan Taylor, will make more than three times as much thanks to his new extension with the Colts ($14M AAV). D’Andre Swift signed a free agent contract in Chicago worth twice as much earlier this month and Miami themselves gave 50% more money two offseasons ago to Chase Edmonds in one of the worst signings of the McDaniel era.
The market plays a part. So, too, does Miami’s scheme specificity — it is tailor-made for Mostert’s explosive burst and his instincts reading perimeter runs. He’s likened it to surfing in the past, and watching him press the line of scrimmage while waiting for that swell of momentum to cascade him around the edge never gets old. Mostert’s own age is undoubtedly a part of the puzzle for this valuation, too. He’s entering into his age-32 season and coming off of career-high numbers in consecutive seasons. Miami seems to be betting that he continues to age like a fine wine.
That said, the $3.71M in guarantees ensures that the team will have an out if he doesn’t. The Dolphins will presumably have notable savings at their disposal to part ways from Mostert after 2024 even after this extension. Here’s hoping they won’t need to. Because even at the new rate of business, Mostert is still an absolute steal. With a repeat performance of 2023, or anything close to it, he’ll (still) be one of the best in all of football at that.