Measuring Perception Versus Reality With Miami Dolphins Decisions Entering 2024 Offseason

The Miami Dolphins have been aggressive in recent years and face a salary cap squeeze. But let's get the facts straight about how it is impacting Miami's here and now entering free agency.

The Miami Dolphins appear to be on the cusp of bowing out of the bidding for several of their top free agents to be. Standout defensive tackle Christian Wilkins and the team seem to have never closed the chasm between one another going all the way back to last summer. Offensive guard Robert Hunt just saw former college teammate Kevin Dotson cash in to the tune of $48M over 3 seasons in Los Angeles. And Hunt is a better player.

The unfortunate reality of the performances of both players over the past few seasons is that they’re seen as attractive investments in the trenches for just about any team in the league. And their losses would create challenges for Miami to replace — there’s no doubt about that.

Perhaps something will change in the next 48 hours or so before the opening bell of the 2024 league year rings on Monday. Those odds feel long, however. And if that fate is indeed sealed, the hints from South Florida suggest cost effective alternatives may be the way.

One of my primary focuses of this offseason has been exploring the 90%-60% theory: can you get 90% of the same player for 60% of the cost?

In the form of Christian Wilkins, probably not. The prospect of a replacement as a high-volume snap-taker on the interior isn’t an easy one to fulfill. And perhaps that’s why he’s being forecasted by many to become a $25M+ a year player. Robert Hunt is an easier yes than Wilkins. But yet you are admittedly looking at probable downgrades at both positions. A 10% downgrade at guard for a savings of $6-7M is likely a worthwhile venture. And in the case of Wilkins, you can field a lot of viable NFL talent for $25M annually; even if a good portion of it would be going to two players to fill the void he’d be leaving behind.

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Guard Robert Hunt has seen the market set this offseason courtesy of the Los Angeles Rams and former college teammate Kevin Dotson. At $16M APY+, Hunt would become a top contract at the position in the NFL.

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These are cost/benefit decisions for Miami that range further than just the individual performance of the players themselves — there is a full roster to account for and a year-over-year outlook that must remain in balance for Miami to be what they aspire to be as an organization.

And that’s where I take exception to the current narratives surrounding Miami amid their pending decisions to spend or not on Hunt and Wilkins.

So let’s get the facts straight.