Kyle Crabbs' 2024 NFL Mock Draft 1.0

The 2024 NFL Draft is two weeks away. With the end creeping closer, what does the 1st-round forecast look like for the football world?

Apr 11, 2024

Please excuse the rust — it has been about 14 months since I’ve written a full 1st-round mock draft. An unceremonious end to the 2023 cycle and a late start to the 2024 cycle each have played their part. Sure, I’ve alternated picks with Joe Marino on Locked On NFL Scouting a few occasions this draft cycle…but this hits different. And I can’t lie, I’ve kind of missed it. Would I be singing the same tune if this was my 8th mock of the cycle? Absolutely not. But I’d also be foolish to deny that the draft process is fully ingrained into who I am as a football personality after a decade of working to develop a scouting system that works for me.

'Touchdown, Miami!' is committed to my long-form Dolphins content — but special occasions, such as the final stretch before the NFL Draft, call for special content. So allow me to offer you all my first (but not last?) full 1st-round mock draft of the 2024 NFL Draft.

1. Chicago Bears (via Carolina) - QB Caleb Williams, USC Trojans

Chicago hits the reset button with the most physically gifted thrower in the class. The Bears will be charged with fine-tuning Williams’ brilliance as a player in order to limit the self-inflicted wounds that he at times incurs. But with several seasons of building a supporting cast for a young quarterback under their belt, Chicago is well-equipped to position this quarterback for long-term success.

2. Washington Commanders - QB Jayden Daniels, LSU Tigers

I think the writing is on the wall here with Kliff Kingsbury’s presence on the coaching staff. If you wanted to pull from the offensive philosophy he invoked in Arizona with Kyler Murray, Daniels is the proper fit. I do think this is a high-risk proposition and Daniels will need to protect himself better in the pros — the comparisons to Lamar Jackson are understandable but I don’t believe Daniels has that level arm or the savvy to avoid big hits that Jackson has shown for nearly a decade.

3. New England Patriots - QB Drake Maye, UNC Tar Heels

New England’s last choice at quarterback was a guy who did well to keep it between the lines. And with little excitement in the supporting cast around him, Mac Jones withered on the vine. Drake Maye feels like the appropriate departure from the “in-structure” style that Jones was coming out of Alabama — which just so happens to be one of the biggest feathers in the cap of the other quarterback left on the board, Michigan’s JJ McCarthy.

4. Arizona Cardinals - WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State Buckeyes

I thought long and hard about Arizona moving out of this pick. But at the end of the day, the Cardinals already have an embarrassment of riches in this class thanks to their prior draft pick maneuvering. Staying put at No. 4 and picking one of the consensus best players in the entire class feels like a proper move for a team that needs needle-moving talent in the skill group.

5. TRADE - Minnesota Vikings - QB JJ McCarthy, Michigan Wolverines

Minnesota didn’t do all this work in March to not pull off a deal. It’s like that Denzel Washington meme:

““I’m leaving with something.” - Denzel Washington”
- Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, probably

This trade package would presumably include both picks No. 11 & 23 in the 2024 NFL Draft and a 1st-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. You’re moving into the top-5 for a quarterback, after all. And given the reported interest in Las Vegas and other teams to move up for a quarterback, competition for this pick should keep the price at three 1’s.

Minnesota, in turn, lands the quarterback who may well be the best stylistic fit for their offense anyway in McCarthy.

6. New York Giants - WR Malik Nabers, LSU Tigers

Whether it is Nabers or Rome Odunze, the Giants desperately need some weaponry to ignite their offense. Sprinkle in the added uncertainty of TE Darren Waller’s playing career and it is hard to justify a pick in any other direction other than the best available wide receiver. New York has totally overhauled their offensive line and added a star pass rusher already via a trade for defensive end Brian Burns.

Nabers gives them the explosive play weapon to help space the field for Brian Daboll’s offense.

7. Tennessee Titans - OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame Fighting Irish

If you haven’t taken the time, go ahead and Google the Titans’ roster and let me know what you think of their offensive tackle situation. For my money, Joe Alt is the best player in the class. That’s a hot take, I know. I’m good for a few. But his ascension this past year has the makings of a future All-Pro in my eyes. He’s that dynamic as a blocker. And with Tennessee aggressively adding talent across the board, this is an obvious intersection of need and value.

8. Atlanta Falcons - EDGE Dallas Turner, Alabama Crimson Tide

Atlanta has done a really nice job of invigorating the offense this offseason — starting with new quarterback Kirk Cousins. Wide receiver Darnell Mooney is a nice shot in the arm. Defensively, this team invested a ton last offseason and they feel close. But they desperately need a more serious group of perimeter pass rushers. Sure, there’s youth in the room. But who is the centerpiece?

The Falcons land one with Dallas Turner — who fits the same kind of mold they’ve pursued with Arnold Ebiketie back in 2022.

9. Chicago Bears - WR Rome Odunze, Washington Huskies

It feels like just yesterday that Chicago’s WR1 was the aforementioned Darnell Mooney. Now? This is a big-time wide receiver room even before adding Odunze to the mix. If you’re going to make the most of your rookie quarterback contract window, maximizing the weapons around him is a must.

After trading for WR Keenan Allen this offseason, Caleb Williams now has three studs to throw to. Odunze’s ability to win down the field is a fantastic foil to Allen’s intermediate route running and DJ Moore’s all-around skills.

10. New York Jets - TE Brock Bowers, Georgia Bulldogs

It feels like there’s a lot of smoke between Bowers and the Jets. Given the team had a tight end on their shortlist for their top pick in 2023 and the fact that the room has lost talent from last season, I’ll go ahead and bite here. Bowers gives the Jets another volume target in the passing game to help Aaron Rodgers in what will be his much-anticipated debut season in New York.

11. Los Angeles Chargers (via Minnesota Vikings) - OT JC Latham, Alabama Crimson Tide

The Chargers trade back, land two extra 1st-round picks to ignite their roster rebuild AND land a war daddy right tackle to help Jim Harbaugh’s campaign to “Run The Damn Ball”? This feels like a fever dream for Los Angeles. I’m absolutely cackling at the idea of Latham and new TE Will Dissly double-teaming the edge and pounding the line of scrimmage for the inevitable Day 2 selection that is RB Blake Corum.

12. Denver Broncos - EDGE Jared Verse, Florida State Seminoles

This is the most challenging pick thus far. Denver needs a long-term outlook at quarterback. But for a team with a lot more needs than just a quarterback, I’ll elect to go with Verse here. Verse has a power element that the majority of Denver’s outside pass rush simply doesn’t; I like how he serves as a complement amid the Broncos’ efforts to get after the top-flight quarterbacks of the AFC West.

13. Las Vegas Raiders - QB Michael Penix Jr. - Washington Huskies

While the Broncos show restraint with picking a quarterback, I’m not sure the Raiders will. The reasoning here? The Raiders apparently had a “how to secure a quarterback” conversation throughout their hiring process this offseason and the team is reportedly kicking around the idea of moving up in the draft. I don’t think the team currently has the ammunition to pull it off — and so the “next” quarterback in line might be the path this team has to take.

Given the smoke around Penix Jr. going in the 1st round and the fit for a team that wants to push the ball aggressively down the field as a foil to their running game, this feels like about as good of a fit as you could find for Penix Jr.’s unique passing strengths.

14. New Orleans Saints - OT Olu Fashanu, Penn State Nittany Lions

The Saints are a team in dire straits along the offensive line; particularly at offensive tackle. Trevor Penning has not materialized as a 1st-round pick and Ryan Ramczyk appears to be on the ropes due to injuries. The Draft remains as one of the few investment windows for the Saints in which their cap management process of the past few years isn’t an inhibitor — so New Orleans needs to make the absolute most of their early picks.

Drafting a promising tackle like Fashanu, who has all the physical ability in the world, addresses the team’s biggest need and should help fortify things up front.

15. Indianapolis Colts - CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo Rockets

The Colts already added a ton of youth to their cornerback room in 2023 — JuJu Brents and Jaylon Jones played a lot of ball as rookies. Add in the return of Kenny Moore as the team’s primary nickel and cornerback isn’t necessarily a desperate need for Indianapolis. But, with all due respect to Jones, he’s not Quinyon Mitchell. Given Indianapolis’ emerging AFC South rival in Houston and their offensive firepower, the Colts would likely love to have another physical, big corner at their disposal.

Mitchell can run, he can find the football and now, thanks to the pre-draft process, we know he can press.

16. Seattle Seahawks - OL Troy Fautanu, Washington Huskies

Seattle’s offensive coordinator? That would be Ryan Grubb. Ryan Grubb’s previous post? That would be the offensive coordinator at the University of Washington. Troy Fautanu played his college ball at… the University of Washington.

Dots officially connected.

Also worth noting? Seattle’s offensive line got mauled this offseason. The entire interior appears poised to be different. And while Fautanu can be a rockstar offensive tackle, many feel he could also play inside in the short-term. That makes him a fit in more ways than one for the Seahawks.

17. TRADE - Buffalo Bills - WR Brian Thomas Jr. - LSU Tigers

You all can blame Joe Marino for this one. He’s absolutely convinced me that Buffalo will do what Brandon Beane has almost always done with his 1st-round picks: go get his guy. Dalton Kincaid? Traded up for him. Kaiir Elam? Traded up for him. Josh Allen? Went and got him. Tremaine Edmunds? You guessed! He traded up for him.

And now that WR Stefon Diggs has been dealt to Houston, Buffalo’s already looming need at wide receiver looks that much more pressing. The good news is Buffalo has Kincaid and newly signed free agent WR Curtis Samuel to go along with 2023 breakout Khalil Shakir. So the well isn’t completely empty. But that’s a lot of middle of the field targets; leaving the Bills in need of a field stretcher and perimeter player.

I think that could be Thomas Jr. — who is like Gabriel Davis but actually explosive on the outside. Buffalo has chain-movers. They need the explosive dynamic outside and that’s where Thomas Jr. has shined the most.

As far as the trade terms? This probably costs No. 28 & No. 60, plus maybe a 2025 mid-round pick.

18. Cincinnati Bengals - IDL Byron Murphy, Texas Longhorns

The Bengals have been drafting a year ahead of expiring contracts for several seasons now. And a revamped defensive interior that now sports Sheldon Rankins doesn’t have a long-term fixture under contract beyond 2024. BJ Hill is an expiring contract in 2025 and Rankins himself signed a 2-year deal this offseason.

Murphy is a dynamic talent with an explosive first step and an outstanding run defense resume. He’d quickly find himself in the rotation and could be a long-term heir to a spot in the middle for Cincinnati.

19. Los Angeles Rams - EDGE Laiatu Latu, UCLA Bruins

Welcome back, Rams fans! Being shut out of the 1st-round of the NFL Draft since Jared Goff in 2016 is a world I wouldn’t wish on any draftnik. Although given the payoff of a Lombardi Trophy, I’m not sure anyone can complain… I wouldn’t know in my lifetime.

Anywho…

The departure of Aaron Donald leaves the Rams without one of their key fixtures over the past decade: a dominant pass rusher. No rookie offers the pass rush ceiling as Latu. And, fittingly for Les Snead, it is something of a high-risk proposition given Latu’s medical history.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers - OT Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State Beavers

Pittsburgh’s roster overhaul on offense has been busy. Two new quarterbacks (technically three including Kyle Allen), trading away WR Diontae Johnson and adding new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s favorite gadget, RB/WR/KR/PR Cordarrelle Patterson.

But Pittsburgh is all about their business in the trenches. And the Steelers’ offensive line does need another tackle to pair with 2023 rookie Broderick Jones. Enter Fuaga, who gives the Steelers perhaps the meanest tackle duo in the AFC.

21. Miami Dolphins - IDL Johnny Newton, Illinois Fighting Illini

The bad news: in spite of everything the Dolphins have done this offseason, they still haven’t replaced Christian Wilkins’ 800+ snaps in the middle of their defense. They’ve added a hoard of defensive linemen that could probably take 200-300 apiece but none of them boast the disruptiveness that Wilkins offered.

Johnny Newton? Disruptive may as well be his middle name. Newton has the best pass rush resume of any interior rusher in the class and has taken high volume snaps in each of the last three seasons at Illinois.

22. Philadelphia Eagles - CB Cooper DeJean, Iowa Hawkeyes

Vic Fangio’s defense loves corners who can tackle and play instinctively with their eyes. Cooper DeJean does both in spades after his time in Iowa. You add in his elite athleticism relative to the other aging corners in Philadelphia? This makes sense in more ways than one.

23. Los Angeles Chargers (via Cleveland through Houston) - WR AD Mitchell, Texas Longhorns

The Chargers faced the opportunity to draft a wide receiver at No. 5 before ultimately trading down in this mock. Landing OT JC Latham and then securing a potential No. 1 wide receiver with an elite athletic profile is about as much as you could have possibly hoped for if you’re a Chargers fan. And, oh by the way, this team picks again at No. 37.

24. Dallas Cowboys - OL Graham Barton, Duke Blue Devils

Offensive tackle? Guard? Center? Are we moving Tyler Smith? Graham Barton helps to alleviate all of those questions with his positional versatility. Barton is a clean prospect who will help Dallas fortify their offensive line amid the losses of Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz.

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25. Green Bay Packers - OT Amarius Mims, Georgia Bulldogs

The Packers’ youth movement should be considered a rousing success already. Last year was supposed to be the year in transition and the team put together a strong finish to the season — making the playoffs and bouncing the Cowboys on the road in the Wild Card round. But their work continues. With a renewed investment into the running game via Josh Jacobs, getting a more explosive set of starters up front feels like a logical additional step. Mims might be the most physically gifted tackle in the class. And this late in the 1st round, he’s a home run pick for the Packers — who have the luxury of the ultimate position flexible player in Zach Tom to ensure Mims can make the lineup from the jump.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - EDGE Chop Robinson, Penn State Nittany Lions

Gone is veteran pass rusher Shaquil Barrett. Joe Tryon-Shoyinka has yet to live up to his 1st-round billing. And while YaYa Diaby showed some promise as a rookie and Randy Gregory can be a quality part of the rotation, this defense needs more juice on the edge. And no one has got a first step quite like Chop Robinson. With the other players in the rotation able to take some of the early-down workload, Robinson can thrive as a designated pass rusher early as he develops the rest of his game.

27. Arizona Cardinals (via Houston) - CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama Crimson Tide

I’ll keep this one brief — the Cardinals cornerback room is currently an unserious collection for an NFL squad. They need a lot of help here and I like Terrion Arnold’s experience in a complex defense to step in and contribute for HC Jonathan Gannon’s unit.

28. Jacksonville Jaguars (via Buffalo) - CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama Crimson Tide

Jacksonville picks up an extra Day 2 pick and still manages to walk away with another big, physical cornerback in the same mold as Tyson Campbell — a dream outcome all things considered. The Jaguars’ roster has undergone some serious remodeling this offseason but the second cornerback spot on the perimeter looms as a big, big need. No more, thanks to McKinstry; he’s at his best when he’s able to play with hands on and attack receivers.

29. Detroit Lions - CB Nate Wiggins, Clemson Tigers

A starting spot in the secondary is now vacant as a result of Detroit’s release of Cameron Sutton this offseason after a warrant was issued for his arrest due to domestic battery. I believe Nate Wiggins can be one to fill it. Wiggins isn’t the biggest but he’s highly competitive, has elite short area agility and is productive finding the football in coverage.

30. Baltimore Ravens - OT Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma Sooners

Baltimore moved on from Morgan Moses this offseason with a trade to the Jets and lost both starting guards to free agency. I don’t care how much you covet the trenches and stay ahead of your needs, that’s a lot of turnover up front for a team to absorb in one offseason. So as much as the team may like Andrew Vorhees and Patrick Mekari and Daniel Faalale, I wouldn’t rest on my laurels here. Guyton is just how Baltimore likes them up front — big and athletic on the edge.

31. San Francisco 49ers - C Zach Frazier, West Virginia Mountaineers

San Francisco’s biggest issue in the Super Bowl was their ability to block Kansas City up front. With the 49ers having gone the economic route on the offensive line (sans Trent Williams) in recent years, it may be time to get back to heavily investing in this unit. Frazier is the center prospect in this year’s class who feels like the best fit for Shanahan’s zone concepts; he’s savvy with his hands to leverage gaps and his wrestling background shines through against bigger defenders. He could feasibly play guard or center in San Francisco this upcoming season.

32. Kansas City Chiefs - WR Xavier Legette, South Carolina Gamecocks

Explosive play ability in the open field meets man coverage destroyer? Legette is an open-field menace with the ball in his hands and runs a more diverse route tree than he probably gets credit for. After the success of rookie Rashee Rice in Year 1, I see no reason why Legette couldn’t formulate a similar production profile for the Chiefs in 2024.