How Does Tua Tagovailoa's Performance Measure Versus His Peers Against Top Defenses?

Tua Tagovailoa's next step as a quarterback includes more breakout performances against top-rated teams. But how does his current resume vs top defenses stack up to his peers in the NFL landscape?

You know the drill by now, right? The Miami Dolphins are looking to take the next step as a franchise. Their starting quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, is looking to take the next step as a player. Both sides must answer the same question in 2024: can they perform better against the elites? As we enter Tagovailoa’s 5th season as the Dolphins’ quarterback, it is fair to stop and survey the rest of the landscape across the NFL, especially considering the highly scrutinized, ongoing contract negotiations between Tagovailoa and the team.

While it is convenient to draw a line in the sand with “playoff teams,” quantifying performance against top teams is a bit more complicated than that. For example, a team like Baltimore could hang 56 points on Miami despite the Dolphins collecting the third-most yards of any team against the Ravens' defense (375) in the regular season. Similarly, Buffalo could score 48 points on Miami despite the Dolphins collecting the third-most yards of any team against the Bills' defense (393) in the regular season. You’re not going to win those games against playoff teams unless you plan on not punting for 60 minutes.

To assess Tagovailoa and his peers against a more direct measure of quality opponents, it is worth considering performances against top-rated defenses rather than just teams by record. How does one measure a successful defense? The low-hanging fruit is yards allowed. Scoring defense is another popular metric for determining defensive prowess. A defensive strength measurement growing in popularity and awareness in recent years is Expected Points Added (EPA) per play.

What is EPA/play? The 33rd Team offers this explanation of football’s most popular metric:

Expected Points is based off the notion that not all yards gained in football are of equal value. For example, a 5-yard gain on third-and-3 increases a team’s chances of scoring much more than the same 5-yard gain on third-and-10. While both situations would reflect a gain of five yards in a traditional box score, the first would result in a first down and continue the drive, while the other would likely force the team to punt on fourth down. Expected Points attempts to quantify this difference in value by relating each play to how much it increases (or decreases) a team’s chances of scoring.

Years of historical data have allowed data engineers and football analysts to engineer a table of expected points for every snap in a game based on down & distance, field position, and a slew of other variables. Teams that outperform the expected points added offensively on a snap-by-snap basis produce a higher score, while teams that outperform the expected points added defensively yield a lower score.

In short, which teams and units outperform the standard expectations of every snap they are faced with each game? That’s EPA/play.

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Miami’s Murderer’s Row

Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins faced a murderer’s row of top-performing EPA/play defensive units in 2023. It comprised half of their schedule, as a matter of fact.

Here are the NFL’s top-10 EPA/play defenses in 2023 according to SumerSports:

1. Cleveland Browns: -0.16 EPA/play

2. Baltimore Ravens: -0.13 EPA/play

3. New York Jets: -0.11 EPA/play

4. Dallas Cowboys: -0.09 EPA/play

5. New Orleans Saints: -0.08 EPA/play

6. Kansas City Chiefs: -0.07 EPA/play

7. Las Vegas Raiders: -0.06 EPA/play

8. Pittsburgh Steelers: -0.06 EPA/play

9. Atlanta Falcons: -0.05 EPA/play

10. Buffalo Bills: -0.05 EPA/play

I often joke that I’m not a math guy, but I can count two starts against the Bills, two starts against the Jets, two starts against the Chiefs, one start against Dallas, one start against the Raiders, and one start against the Ravens to be 9 of 18 games played on the schedule. If 50% of a full NFL schedule against top-10 ranked teams in any defensive metric feels like a lot, it’s because it is.

Given Miami’s disproportionate schedule in 2023 and the narratives around this past season, I decided to expand the sample size of EPA/play performances against top-10 defenses to include both seasons of the Mike McDaniel era in Miami. After all, so much of the focus for the Dolphins was how empty-handed Miami came up late in the season and, fairly or not, how their quarterback failed to rise the tide for all ships.

To further isolate the passing performance, I decided to amplify the top-10 defensive measures to isolate defensive performance by EPA/pass play. This included 9 of the same 10 teams as overall defensive performance from 2023, with some re-ordering (and some even more smothering bodies of work). Here are the top-10 pass defenses ranked in EPA/pass play from both 2023 and 2022 via SumerSports:

2023 NFL Pass Defense Leaders (EPA/pass play)

1. Cleveland Browns: -0.24 EPA/pass play

2. Baltimore Ravens: -0.20 EPA/pass play*

3. New York Jets: -0.16 EPA/pass play**

4. Kansas City Chiefs: -0.15 EPA/pass play**

5. Dallas Cowboys: -0.14 EPA/pass play*

6. New Orleans Saints: -0.12 EPA/pass play

7. San Francisco 49ers: -0.12 EPA/pass play

8. Buffalo Bills: -0.11 EPA/pass play**

9. Las Vegas Raiders: -0.06 EPA/pass play*

10. Pittsburgh Steelers: -0.06 EPA/pass play

2022 NFL Pass Defense Leaders (EPA/pass play)

1. Philadelphia Eagles: -0.15 EPA/pass play

2. San Francisco 49ers: -0.12 EPA/pass play*

3. Dallas Cowboys: -0.11 EPA/pass play

4. New England Patriots: -0.11 EPA/pass play*

5. New York Jets: -0.09 EPA/pass play

6. New Orleans Saints: -0.08 EPA/pass play

7. Cincinnati Bengals: -0.06 EPA/pass play*

8. Denver Broncos: -0.06 EPA/pass play

9. Washington Commanders: -0.06 EPA/pass play

10. Los Angeles Chargers: -0.05 EPA/pass play*

Starts by Tua Tagovailoa over the last two years are noted by an asterisk.

Tagovailoa started a total of 13 games over the last two seasons against top-10 EPA/play pass defenses. He missed an additional 3.5 games due to injury (second half vs. Cincinnati, both Jets starts and the second Patriots game). Even with the missed starts, this sample size is significant and should provide plenty of enlightenment into just how well the Dolphins' starter has or hasn’t played against top defenses over the past two seasons.

But any good data study provides further context beyond a single set of conditions. So, let’s welcome the rest of the 2020 NFL Draft quarterback class to the fray.

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2020 QB Class Versus Top-10 EPA/Pass Play Defenses Since 2022

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love is a member of the class of 2020, but because he’s only logged one season's worth of starts, he’s been omitted from this exercise. That leaves Tagovailoa, 1st-overall pick Joe Burrow, 6th-overall pick Justin Herbert, and 2nd-round draft choice Jalen Hurts as the other three members from the class that we will be comparing to Tagovailoa in terms of their performance against top-ranked pass defenses over the last two years.

The first thing that stands out about these classmates is how often they’re facing elite pass defenses on their schedules. Tagovailoa has 13 starts against top-10 ranked EPA/pass play defenses since 2022. Only Jalen Hurts joins Tagovailoa in double digits (10 for Hurts), whereas Joe Burrow has played against 9 top-10 ranked passing defenses in EPA/play, and Justin Herbert has logged only 8.

What are each one of those quarterbacks doing with those opportunities against the best of the best? I’m glad you asked.

May we, first and foremost, raise a glass to Joe Burrow. Burrow completely savaged several top pass defenses over the past two years, and his average game EPA/play is only in the stratosphere of Jalen Hurts because of a catastrophic Week 1 performance against Cleveland this past season. Burrow posted a 14/31 for 82 yards in that game against the Browns, marking the single worst game performance against a top-10 pass defense of any of the four quarterbacks over the past two years.

The bad news for Miami is that Tagovailoa owns each of the next two worst single-game performances — Miami’s December loss in San Francisco in 2022 (-0.31 EPA/play) and the Dolphins’ season-ending playoff loss to Kansas City in the 2023 Wild Card Round (-0.28 EPA/play). Justin Herbert’s 2023 losses to Baltimore (-0.25 EPA/play) and the New York Jets (-0.15 EPA/play) round out the bottom five individual game performances.

Justin Herbert’s numbers are undoubtedly the most startling. Yes, he’s been plagued with the presence of Brandon Staley as his head coach over the past several seasons and a number of injuries to the offensive line and skill group are worth noting — but Herbert still collectively boasts a NEGATIVE average EPA/play across 8 games. His shining performance, a Week 18 contest against a 4-12 Broncos team in 2022, came with either the 5 or 6 seed of the AFC playoffs clinched already and nothing to truly play for. Omitting that game from Herbert’s resume leaves him with a -0.09 EPA/play average across the other 7 games since 2022. Given his status as a pundit darling at the position, you’d think this wouldn’t be the case.

Tagovailoa’s numbers are fairly modest, but it is encouraging to see the positive trend in performances in 2023. While only two of Tua’s nine 2023 contests against top-10 EPA/pass play defenses were robust in their EPA/play scoring, six out of the nine games did feature a positive EPA/play outcome as compared to two of four in 2022 — and Tua didn’t finish the first half of one of those two positive games from 2022. For all the talk about Tagovailoa’s failure to play well late in the season, it is worth noting that his best two EPA/play performances against elite pass defenses came against two top-5 units in December without either Tyreek Hill (who missed the second New York Jets contest all together) or Jaylen Waddle (who left the Dallas game early).

The king of EPA/play since 2022 among the 2020 quarterbacks is Jalen Hurts. He averaged a healthy 0.12 EPA/play per game across 10 games and avoided the massive stinker performances that pulled down Tagovailoa, Burrow, and Herbert’s 2023 (and 2-year) averages. Hurts logged 7 positive EPA/play performances in 10 games, and his worst single-game performance was a -0.08 EPA/play game versus Kansas City this past season.

Hurts does have a secret weapon at his disposal to help his EPA/play performance, though. The Tush Push weighs heavily on his consistent production in these games. Warren Sharp outlined just how valuable the play has been for Philadelphia as a team and for Jalen Hurts’ EPA production:

The Eagles have gained 88.8 EPA on all rushes the last 3 years #1 most in the NFL but over 60% of that EPA has simply been Jalen Hurts sneaks with 1-yard to go for a 1st down, vast majority of which are the tush push variety look at these splits:

• 53.3 EPA on 92 Hurts 1-yard sneaks (+0.58/play)

• 35.5 EPA on 1,512 other runs (+0.02/play)

  And then there's this: the 53.3 EPA from Hurts 1-yard sneaks is MORE EPA THAN EVERY OTHER TEAM'S TOTAL RUSHING EPA the last 3 years. That is how valuable the Eagles tush push has been: that 1-yard sneak from Hurts has generated MORE EPA the last 3 years than every single other team's entire rushing attack over those 3 years.

— Warren Sharp

It’s hard to ignore this level of impact on Hurts’ measurements here — although discounting the play is hard to embrace too, as it does produce first downs and points. But Hurts scored the game winner against the Chiefs in the 2023 regular season via Tush Push. Hurts plunged in for a touchdown against Buffalo to take an early lead via Tush Push. Dallas? 3 successful conversions, including a touchdown. You get the point.

I digress…this isn’t a “Ban The Tush Push Manifesto”. It is simply worth noting with a cross-reference of skills that Hurts’ EPA/play moneymaker is not a club that Tagovailoa has in his bag.

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Context Of Tua’s Play In Depth

Speaking of Tagovailoa, let’s take a moment to further explore his numbers. His regular season EPA/play in 8 contests against top-10 passing defenses in 2023 was actually a very solid 0.076 EPA/play — that would have been just one one-thousandth of a point less than Jalen Hurts’ 2023 season average. It is unfortunate that Tagovailoa and Miami’s season was marred with such an ugly exit because the floor of the performances was higher in 2023 than the previous season, despite catching twice as many games.

It’s also left the sour taste in everyone’s mouth.

There are arguments on both sides of the Tagovailoa fence with this data. Supporters would tell you the floor of the performances up until an all-time road environment against the eventual Super Bowl champions was on a firm trajectory. Detractors would point out that Tagovailoa, with perhaps the best supporting cast of skill players and offensive coaching in 2023, had a lower percentage of “impact” starts against these opponents than his counterparts in Cincinnati and Philadelphia. Additionally, his two-year sample size of 0.01 EPA/play against top-10 EPA/pass play defenses indicates that he’s plainly meeting the historical expectations of every down & distance he’s faced with in each game — not exceeding them as you’d hope for from a top-flight passer.

The irony of Tagovailoa’s two best performances is that they were achieved despite significant stress on his supporting cast, which should have further weighed on Tagovailoa. Austin Jackson, the team’s highest snap taker along the offensive line, played less than 30 snaps against the Jets and missed the Cowboys game. Starters Connor Williams and Robert Hunt were out for both games. Additionally, starting left guard Isaiah Wynn was long gone by then. The Dolphins fielded just one starting offensive lineman against Dallas.

Adding in the fact that Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert both went down in the first half against the Cowboys and Tyreek Hill missed the New York Jets game altogether, it’s fascinating that Tagovailoa turned in his best two games of the McDaniel era under those circumstances late in the season. This is particularly noteworthy given the narratives around his December play. Both games did take place at Hard Rock Stadium, for what it is worth.

Relative to his peers from 2020, there’s no question Tagovailoa has another gear to kick into against top defenses against the pass. Miami’s personnel additions should afford him another strong (and deeper) supporting cast in 2024. Is that enough to justify the type of mega-contract that Tagovailoa and his camp seem to be holding out for this offseason?

That’s a complicated question. But it is one that can be made easier by assessing the same 2-year performance workload against top passing defenses from his peers atop the quarterback payroll pyramid.

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Top Dollar Quarterbacks Against Top Pass Defenses

The current hierarchy of NFL quarterbacks on an Annual Average Salary (AAV) basis is as follows:

1. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals - $55M AAV

2. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars - $55M AAV

3. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions - $53M AAV

4. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers - $52.5M AAV

5. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens - $52M AAV

6. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles - $51M AAV

Half of the $50M+ annual average club came out of the class of 2020 — we’ve already established their EPA performances against top defenses. Tagovailoa came in ahead of Justin Herbert against similarly difficult opponents since 2022 but did check in a healthy margin behind both Burrow and Hurts. As has been noted, however, Hurts has the most unique play in football juicing his EPA efficiency. And, sans the playoff game in Kansas City, Tagovailoa’s EPA/play against top pass defenses scored right in line with Hurts in 2023.

What about Trevor Lawrence (the new APY king), Jared Goff, and Lamar Jackson? These are the other three members of football’s most exclusive club. How do their performances against these caliber opponents measure up to the QB Class of 2020?

This trio of highly compensated NFL quarterbacks has been added to the original table; the quarterbacks have been sorted from highest 2-year average EPA/play to lowest:

Lamar Jackson’s 0.093 EPA/play average is boosted significantly thanks to a dominant showing against top pass defenses in 2022. Despite an average of 0.000 EPA/play across five games against top defenses during his second NFL MVP campaign, he still checks in a healthy third place on the revised list.

Jared Goff’s figures mirror those of Tua Tagovailoa fairly evenly across the two-season sample size. How he got there is fascinating, though. Goff’s -0.060 EPA/play in 2022 was the worst of any of the seven charted quarterbacks. His 0.092 EPA/play average in 2023? The best of any of the seven charted quarterbacks for this past season. Which version will Detroit get in 2024? More time in Ben Johnson’s system would suggest that he’ll be even more comfortable and have the answers needed against top defenses. But his profile as a worst-to-first quarterback in this exercise year over year, despite being considered a “low tools” quarterback, is a significant development — given that is the knock on Tagovailoa.

Trevor Lawrence? The football gods giveth and the football gods taketh away. Lawrence has either been sublime or shameful in his 14 contests against top-10 EPA/pass play defenses. Lawrence has logged three games better than Tagovailoa’s best EPA/play performance against top competition over the last two years…and three games worse than Tua’s disastrous playoff performance in Kansas City.

In all, Tagovailoa certainly doesn’t profile like the quarterback with the most questions on this list. Again, there is ample room for improvement and better performances. There’s reason to believe, based on the trend of his play over the two years of the system, that the floor are the ceiling are rising. Consider the individual season measures for all seven quarterbacks in average EPA/play since 2022:

The progression of the numbers is evident, even with a disastrous performance in the Wild Card round cutting his average EPA/play for the season against top-10 pass defenses by more than half. Only Tagovailoa and Goff saw their EPA/play average against these caliber opponents rise from 2022 to 2023. Moreover, no quarterback faced more defenses of this degree of difficulty than Tagovailoa last season.

Allow me to be perfectly clear.

Tagovailoa will need to be better than he has been in the McDaniel era against these defenses for the Dolphins to reach their ultimate goals. His performances against top defenses have, generally speaking, not been consistently good enough. However, as is often the case with Miami, the scrutiny on the Dolphins and their franchise quarterback amid ongoing contract negotiations lacks the proper context of how Tagovailoa, the individual, has performed relative to his peers.

Tagovailoa actually played quite well early in the first Buffalo game and the Baltimore game, even though neither game offered a game script Miami could match for 60 minutes. The 2023 Philadelphia game didn’t qualify as an EPA metric for this exercise, but it is one of the “playoff team losses” that the Dolphins are criticized for from this past season. Tua himself played admirably well and lost multiple touchdown passes to penalties and drops. The Dolphins also caught both the Bills and the Chiefs twice, with just one of those four games coming at home. Not great!

And yet, does anyone talk about how Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars went 1-5 down the stretch after an 8-3 start to blow the AFC South and miss the playoffs? How much was it really brought up once Lawrence got his contract extension? Or did you hear how the Jaguars just really believe in Lawrence and wanted to lock him in?

What kind of fury has been raised about Joe Burrow missing more games in his NFL career than Tua and having twice as many season-ending injuries in four years? Are there concerns about paying Burrow $55M per season as a result? You tell me.

Jared Goff was once the punching bag that Tagovailoa seems to be now for a lot of pundits. A “modest system quarterback who can’t read defenses, isn’t athletic enough to extend plays and relies on an elite play-caller and support staff to carry him around”. If that sounds familiar to a 2024 Miami Dolphins fan, it should. Ironically enough, Goff left the Rams and ultimately disproved all of those narratives in 2023 — one year after posting the second worst single-season EPA/play against top-10 EPA/pass play defenses in 2022.

I’m not asking anyone to pretend the questions with Tua Tagovailoa don’t exist. I’m just asking us to have the same energy with everyone, no matter what team they play for.