A Recent History Of NFL Draft Trade Downs From The Early 20s
The Miami Dolphins are currently scheduled to pick 21st overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. Amid their bid for extra draft capital, the Dolphins may look to trade down. What should they expect in value?
The NFL Draft is the annual offseason event that energizes fanbases from each of the league’s 32 franchises. Rarely will a group of fans leave the draft feeling like they didn’t win it. However, for the NFL franchises themselves and, more specifically, the people who run them, winning the draft is looking different these days. The old school ideology of drafting for need is alive and well — and some teams are fully content to check the box and fill a hole in the starting lineup. But for other teams, the name of the game is 'value.'
Finding 'value' in the Draft comes in a multitude of ways.
One such way is drafting the best player available. This is an obvious application of maximizing one’s investments. But value comes in other ways too. Trades are often hot and heavy once the opening bell rings, as teams look to shuffle up or down the board to meet where they feel the value for their respective team and scheme lies in any given draft.
Miami Dolphins fans? They are hungry for a trade.
It has been a while since Miami has logged a pick in the top 50. In 2024, provided nothing changes, it will be the first time in three drafts that Miami calls a name in the 1st round. But the moves (and sins) of the past leave Miami in a perilous position all the same: they’re short on picks. The Dolphins currently own picks No. 21 and 55 before what is currently a 103-pick wait until their next selection; a pick at No. 158 overall in the 5th round.
Miami’s 3rd-round pick this season sits in NFL commissioner Roger Goodell’s treasure chest — a trophy claimed in the name of ‘the integrity of the game’. And, to be fair to Goodell, the Dolphins’ misdeeds in regards to tampering with Sean Payton and Tom Brady and the alleged tanking of 2019 do indeed violate the league standards. Other teams have made similar offenses, but not as brazenly or as recklessly as Miami. Thankfully, the 2024 3rd-round selection will be the last of the repentance for the Dolphins.
Miami’s 4th-round pick this season belongs to the Broncos — the last price to pay for the acquisition of EDGE defender Bradley Chubb in a blockbuster trade deadline deal in 2022. If you like silver linings, the Dolphins are still scheduled to receive a 2025 5th-round pick as part of the total trade compensation. So Miami will be partially repaid for this year’s absent pick.
Missing one or the other would be a position fairly easily digested. Missing both, particularly in this year’s NFL Draft, hurts. The Dolphins’ triple-digit wait in the queue for a third selection comes where the meat of this class is generally considered to be — and thanks to advances in collegiate compensation (NIL) and player mobility (the transfer portal), the late stages of this year’s class are considered to be barren in appealing talent.
Which brings us back to the aspirations of fans to trade and find more value and, more specifically, more picks.
Miami’s competitive window is still very much open in the AFC East. That much was underscored yesterday when the Buffalo Bills punted on WR Stefon Diggs in 2024; trading him to a conference rival and losing several million dollars of cap space in the process for a 2025 2nd-round draft choice. Trading down has obvious appeal, but only if the team is vigilant not to surrender players that could help Miami win in 2024 too.
This will be a delicate dance of balance; which I would be inclined to think makes it difficult to envision Miami finding the right circumstances to pull it off. Many fans are hoping for a 3rd-round pick recouped via a move down the board. But how far would Miami have to go to pull it off? And more specifically, what does the recent history of trades down from the early 20s on draft night tell us about the value teams are willing to surrender to move up the board?
Conditions To Trade Down
Moving down from the 21st-overall selection figures to be in play for Miami under two specific conditions when you view the team’s position logically. And through an economic lens:
Surplus or scarcity.
Surplus
sur·plus
/ˈsərpləs,ˈsərˌpləs/
noun
an amount of something left over when requirements have been met; an excess of production or supply over demand.
This is the ideal world for Miami to live in. The 'requirements' being met in the application of the Oxford definition of surplus are simple: there must be 20 picks made before Miami comes on the board. How many good-to-great prospect fits for the Dolphins are available when those first 20 spots are filled? If Miami comes on the board at 21 with a list of five players they would be comfortable adding to their ranks, they may feel more compelled to slide down a few spots in the draft order, pick up extra pick value, and feel like they can still have their choice of several of those players again in another hour when they roll back around onto the clock.
That is the dream. You get good value with your pick and you get good value with your investment opportunity.
The other side of the coin is a little more depressing, but it still necessitates exploring a trade.
Scarcity
scar·ci·ty
/ˈskersədē/
noun
the state of being scarce or in short supply; shortage.
Suppose those 20 picks are made in front of the Dolphins and instead of a list of five players they’d feel really good about, they have zero. Not great. And also, as I outlined in the Mock Draft roundup on Locked On Dolphins this week, not impossible. Lance Zierlein of NFL.com came within about one player of the total doomsday scenario for Miami.
This is the more desperate scenario. And in the event that it comes to pass, the Dolphins may have to choose between sacrificing value in the player they add (the pick itself) or alternatively in the investment opportunity as a whole (to take less to trade down). And that sets the stage for the trend we’ve seen in recent history across the NFL over the past decade. 'Touchdown, Miami!' has reviewed 14 trades made on draft night over the past 10 years involving a pick at or around No. 21 overall and discovered a trend that should help Dolphins fans properly calibrate their expectations on what the team may get if they do indeed decide to move down.
10-Year History Of Trade Downs
Let’s dive right in. Here are the trades assessed over the past 10 years of NFL Drafts, spanning from 2014 to 2023, involving a pick at or near Miami’s positioning in the order:
2023
Jacksonville trades: Pick No. 24 overall
New York (Giants) trades: Picks No. 25 overall, No. 160 overall & No. 240 overall
Total trade value swapped on the Jimmy Johnson Trade Value chart:
JAX receives: 748 points
NYG receives: 740 points
Trade down net: +8 Trade Value Chart points
************************************
Jacksonville trades: Pick No. 25 overall
Buffalo trades: Picks No. 27 overall & No. 130 overall
Total trade value swapped on the Jimmy Johnson Trade Value chart:
JAX receives: 722 points
BUF receives: 720 points
Trade down net: +2 Trade Value Chart points
2022
New England trades: Pick No. 21 overall
Kansas City trades: Picks No. 29 overall, No. 94 overall & No. 121 overall
Total trade value swapped on the Jimmy Johnson Trade Value chart:
NE receives: 816 points
KC receives: 800 points
Trade down net: +16 Trade Value Chart points
************************************
Baltimore trades: Pick No. 23 overall
Buffalo trades: Picks No. 25 overall & No. 130 overall
Total trade value swapped on the Jimmy Johnson Trade Value chart:
BAL receives: 762 points
BUF receives: 760 points
Trade down net: +2 Trade Value Chart points
2021
No qualifying trades transpired during the events of the 1st round of the 2021 NFL Draft.
2020
New England trades: Pick No. 23 overall
Los Angeles (Chargers) trades: Picks No. 37 overall & No. 71 overall
Total trade value swapped on the Jimmy Johnson Trade Value chart:
NE receives: 765 points
LAC receives: 760 points
Trade down net: +5 Trade Value Chart points
2019
Seattle trades: Pick No. 21 overall
Green Bay trades: Picks No. 30 overall, No. 114 overall & No. 118 overall
Total trade value swapped on the Jimmy Johnson Trade Value chart:
SEA receives: 744 points
GB receives: 800 points
Trade down net: -56 Trade Value Chart points
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Baltimore trades: Pick No. 22 overall
Philadelphia trades: Picks No. 25 overall, No. 127 overall & No. 197 overall
Total trade value swapped on the Jimmy Johnson Trade Value chart:
BAL receives: 777.6 points
PHI receives: 780 points
Trade down net: -2.4 Trade Value Chart points
2018
Baltimore trades: Picks No. 22 overall & No. 215 overall
Buffalo trades: Picks No. 25 overall & No. 125 overall
Total trade value swapped on the Jimmy Johnson Trade Value chart:
BAL receives: 767 points
BUF receives: 785.4 points
Trade down net: -18.4 Trade Value Chart points
2017
Seattle trades: Pick No. 26 overall
Atlanta trades: Picks No. 31 overall, No. 95 overall & No. 249 overall
Total trade value swapped on the Jimmy Johnson Trade Value chart:
SEA receives: 721 points
ATL receives: 700 points
Trade down net: +21 Trade Value Chart points
2016
Washington trades: Pick No. 21 overall
Houston trades: Picks No. 22 overall & 2017 6th-Round Pick
Total trade value swapped on the Jimmy Johnson Trade Value chart:
WAS receives: 792.6 points
HOU receives: 800 points
Trade down net: -7.4 Trade Value Chart points
************************************
Seattle trades: Pick No. 26 overall
Denver trades: Picks No. 31 overall & No. 94 overall
Total trade value swapped on the Jimmy Johnson Trade Value chart:
SEA receives: 724 points
DEN receives: 700 points
Trade down net: +24 Trade Value Chart points
2015
Detroit trades: Pick No. 23 overall
Denver trades: Picks No. 28 overall, No. 143 overall, 2016 5th-Round Pick & OG Manny Ramierez
Total trade value swapped on the Jimmy Johnson Trade Value chart:
DET receives: 720 points (plus Ramierez)
DEN receives: 760 points
Trade down net: N/A Trade Value Chart points
2014
Arizona trades: Pick No. 20 overall
New Orleans trades: Picks No. 27 overall & No. 91 overall
Total trade value swapped on the Jimmy Johnson Trade Value chart:
ARZ receives: 816 points
NO receives: 850 points
Trade down net: -34 Trade Value Chart points
************************************
Philadelphia trades: Pick No. 22 overall
Cleveland trades: Picks No. 26 overall & No. 83 overall
Total trade value swapped on the Jimmy Johnson Trade Value chart:
PHI receives: 875 points
CLE receives: 780 points
Trade down net: +95 Trade Value Chart points
History Lessons & Observations
Let’s get this out of the way first. The last trade chronicled between Philadelphia and Cleveland is one to put a star next to — it was a quarterback trade. The Browns leapt up in the draft to select QB Johnny Manziel (no comment) with the 22nd overall pick; which explains the stark contrast in the value exchanged in that selection versus every other trade over the last 10 years outlined here.
Now, if Miami were to see Bo Nix slide into the 20s and a desperate team came knocking, the Dolphins would have the chance to consider putting that team through the cleaners. But the only quarterback-hungry team behind Miami for the rest of the 1st round as things are currently scheduled is Minnesota, who also owns Pick No. 11. It feels unlikely Miami would be put in this position unless a team outside the 1st round came calling.
The biggest primary development in recent years is that these teams are getting stingier and stricter about the value exchanging hands. Excluding Manziel’s trade in 2014, teams averaged -14 points in value when trading down. Only two of the other 8 trade downs from 2014-2019 saw the team moving down collect a greater sum of value in accordance with the trade value chart — moving down the board was a concession of value in the asset.
That has changed in recent years. Every trade since 2020 has seen the team moving down collect a greater sum of assets than they traded away. This certainly falls in line with what Miami has collectively tried to achieve during this regime of football operations, too.
The Dolphins have developed a reputation for assessing value and sticking to their guns throughout negotiations — particularly in free agency. That may be how Andrew Van Ginkel, Robert Hunt, and Christian Wilkins saw their way out of South Florida last month. But it is also how the team came into the services of Terron Armstead ($15M APY was indeed a discount, even amid the injury questions), as well as the Laremy Tunsil trade.
Another prominent observation of the trade trends in these conditions is the lack of trades that have actually netted a 3rd-round draft choice back in return. Of the fourteen trades made since 2014, only the following trade downs collected that coveted Day 2 pick Miami is missing:
2022 Patriots
2020 Patriots
2017 Seahawks
2016 Seahawks
2014 Cardinals
2014 Eagles*
* Quarterback trade with the Browns
The hopes and aspirations of Dolphins fans to recoup that late pick may well be easier said than done. But if the Dolphins are indeed able to do it, they’ll find a logical dance partner. So let’s explore who picks behind Miami and what kinds of trade compensation packages would be historically appropriate for each.
Potential Partners & Packages
Let’s patrol the remainder of the 1st-round teams. For the sake of the discussion, we’ll keep the focus inside the top-32 picks.
Miami Dolphins
Philadelphia Eagles
Minnesota Vikings (via CLE through HOU)
Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay Packers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Arizona Cardinals (via HOU)
Buffalo Bills
Detroit Lions
Baltimore Ravens
San Francisco 49ers
Kansas City Chiefs
And here are just some of the iterations of pick combinations that could add up to achieve the following:
A trade between Miami and a team behind them
A compensation package that keeps Miami in the 1st-round
A compensation package that gives the Dolphins a marginal net positive return in the trade down
Philadelphia Eagles
MIA trades: Pick No. 21 overall
PHI trades: Picks No. 22 overall & No. 161 overall
Total trade value swapped on the Jimmy Johnson Trade Value chart:
MIA receives: 807 points
PHI receives: 800 points
Trade down net: +7 Trade Value Chart points
Minnesota Vikings (via CLE through HOU)
MIA trades: Pick No. 21 overall
MIN trades: Picks No. 23 overall & No. 129 overall
Total trade value swapped on the Jimmy Johnson Trade Value chart:
MIA receives: 803 points
MIN receives: 800 points
Trade down net: +3 Trade Value Chart points
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas currently owns Picks No. 24, 56, 87 and no other picks until No. 174. Pick No. 174 would leave Dallas nearly 40 points of a break-even offer but pick No. 87 would overpay Miami by nearly 100 points — the value of the 100th overall pick.
This makes Dallas a highly unlikely partner barring player trades or future 2025 draft capital.
Green Bay Packers
MIA trades: Pick No. 21 overall
GB trades: Picks No. 25 overall, No. 126, No. 169 & No. 202 overall
Total trade value swapped on the Jimmy Johnson Trade Value chart:
MIA receives: 800.4 points
GB receives: 800 points
Trade down net: +0.4 Trade Value Chart points
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
MIA trades: Picks No. 21 overall & 158 overall
TB trades: Picks No. 26 overall & No. 92 overall
Total trade value swapped on the Jimmy Johnson Trade Value chart:
MIA receives: 832 points
TB receives: 828.2 points
Trade down net: +3.8 Trade Value Chart points
Arizona Cardinals (via HOU)
MIA trades: Picks No. 21 overall & No. 184 overall
ARZ trades: Picks No. 27 overall & No. 94 overall
Total trade value swapped on the Jimmy Johnson Trade Value chart:
MIA receives: 820 points
ARZ receives: 817.8 points
Trade down net: +2.2 Trade Value Chart points
Buffalo Bills
Not only is Buffalo a divisional rival the Dolphins are trying to chase down, the Bills currently do not hold a selection between No. 60 overall and No. 128 overall. This void in selections leaves Buffalo with no assets to close the gap between Miami’s 21st overall pick and Buffalo’s 28th overall pick.
This makes Dallas a highly unlikely partner barring player trades or future 2025 draft capital; unlikely given their relationship in the AFC East.
Detroit Lions
MIA trades: Picks No. 21 overall, No. 158 overall & 2025 4th-round pick
DET trades: Picks No. 29 overall & No. 73 overall
Total trade value swapped on the Jimmy Johnson Trade Value chart:
MIA receives: 865 points
DET receives: 846 points
Trade down net: +19 Trade Value Chart points* (Projected future pick value)
Baltimore Ravens
MIA trades: Picks No. 21 overall & No. 198 overall
BAL trades: Picks No. 30 overall, No. 93 overall & No. 113 overall
Total trade value swapped on the Jimmy Johnson Trade Value chart:
MIA receives: 816 points
BAL receives: 812.2 points
Trade down net: +3.8 Trade Value Chart points
San Francisco 49ers
MIA trades: Pick No. 21 overall
SF trades: Picks No. 31 overall, No. 94 overall, No. 124 overall & No. 135 overall
Total trade value swapped on the Jimmy Johnson Trade Value chart:
MIA receives: 810.5 points
SF receives: 800 points
Trade down net: +10.5 Trade Value Chart points
Kansas City Chiefs
MIA trades: Picks No. 21 overall & 2025 3rd-round pick
KC trades: Picks No. 32 overall, No. 64 overall & No. 173 overall
Total trade value swapped on the Jimmy Johnson Trade Value chart:
MIA receives: 882.2 points
KC receives: 875 points
Trade down net: +7.2 Trade Value Chart points* (Projected future pick value)
The intersection of these possibilities (and countless other permutations of each team’s assets) and the interests of players on the board when Pick No. 21 comes on the clock creates a myriad of options for Miami to potentially explore. But the Dolphins will need the right board to break from them and the board to break perilously for another team behind them for the right motivation to strike a deal to be in place.
Should Miami find it, I would venture to say the following possible teams offer Miami the most realistic opportunity to move with the Dolphins:
Minnesota & Pick No. 23
Tampa Bay & Pick No. 26
Arizona & Pick No. 27
Minnesota would, theoretically net a 4th-round pick. Both Tampa and Arizona could land Miami that coveted 3rd-rounder. All three teams could be a potential trade candidate for a cornerback; given that status of Akaleb Evans, Zyon McCollum and Starling Thomas V as projected starters on those rosters. And with Philadelphia lurking at No. 22 overall and in need of a corner of their own? That may be the magic Miami needs.
We won’t know for three weeks. As we’ve now discussed, there’s a LOT that needs to come into the picture.
I can see a trade with GB of swapping 1st round picks and 2nd round picks in exchange for swapping Miami’s 5th for GB’s second 3rd round pick (91).