A Historical Perspective On OL Free Agency Spending
The Miami Dolphins' offensive line appears in need of a massive overhaul this offseason, with many players set to hit the market. What does historical spending tell us about how to attack spending?
The Miami Dolphins’ team needs entering next week’s free agency window features quite a bit of meat on the offensive line. The Dolphins, who have been plagued by play in the trenches that ranges from inconsistent to abysmal for the better part of a decade, have 2023 starters Isaiah Wynn, Connor Williams and Robert Hunt all marked as expiring contracts. Add in Robert Jones and Kendall Lamm and Miami could field a viable starting offensive line just from the players who are no longer under contract this offseason.
Granted, Miami is going to have a week to try to iron out some agreements and keep their pick of the litter from hitting the open market. But all indications suggest that the two most talented of Miami’s expiring OL, Robert Hunt and Connor Williams, are poised to test the market. And none of the remaining outgoing talent should be considered as viable options to step into those voids.
Yes, Miami does have 2021 draft selection Liam Eichenberg as a primary snap taker in each of the last three seasons but performance suggests he is better suited for a utility role as a 6th offensive lineman.
So with that said, buckle up.
Miami, who is operating on a budget, seems unlikely to have much success beating out other teams in an open market pissing contest for who can throw the most money at an offensive lineman. At least not in 2024, when the team’s budget is tighter than most due to highly paid contracts at other positions. But is that necessarily a bad thing? Miami is going to have to spend, surely. It is difficult envisioning them simply going shopping for Dollar Store level investments — they’re prepping to pay a quarterback major money after all while trying to compete for postseason success this season. They can’t go too cheap here.
While the perception is Miami has gone cheap on the offensive line, they honestly haven’t. They’ve spent the following assets into OL since this team rebuilt in 2019.
Dolphins Notable Offensive Line Investments since 2019
2019:
3rd round draft selection: Michael Deiter, Wisconsin
6th round draft selection: Isaiah Prince, Ohio State
2020:
1st round draft selection: Austin Jackson, USC
2nd round draft selection: Robert Hunt, Louisiana
4th round draft selection: Solomon Kindley, Georgia
3-year, $30M free agent contract for Ereck Flowers
2021:
2nd round draft selection: Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame
7th round draft selection: Larnell Coleman, Massachusetts
2022:
3rd round draft selection: Traded for Liam Eichenberg in 2021
5-year, $75M free agent contract for Terron Armstead
2-year, $14M free agent contract for Connor Williams
2023:
1 year, $2M free agent contract for Isaiah Wynn
Is this collection going to give you the warm and fuzzies? No, probably not. But Miami entered the season 2023 season with a cornerstone talent in Armstead, two quality starters in Hunt and Williams and a starting right tackle in Jackson who came back from the dead to stabilize his play as an adequate starter & earned a second contract with the team.
Injuries to two players who had never had the problem (Hunt & Williams), plus several more injuries to two more who always have (Armstead & Wynn) were the primary root of Miami’s shortcomings in the trenches down the stretch. Some of that is bad luck. Some of it is the inherent cost of buying on the OL market in free agency.
Good offensive linemen aren’t easy to find. Just about every team in the league would love to have seven of them — and most really only have 3 or so.
“Hi Supply, meet Demand. Demand? This is Supply.”
The byproduct here is that consistently good offensive linemen don’t often hit the free agent market. And those that do usually have some level of fine print. Maybe it is injuries. Maybe it is scheme specificity. Sometimes you’ll find a cash-strapped team that simply can’t meet the want of the player.
That would be the case with Robert Hunt. Sometimes you just don’t have the juice.
But teams USUALLY figure these ones out. Open market offensive line pursuits is a bit of a bloodbath as a result. Not that it stops teams from ponying up big, anyway. I’m just saying — there’s a superb amount of risk associated in many instances. The cost of out-bidding half the league while forecasting a talent into a brand new system with brand new teammates amid additional risk for individuals is dangerous business.
But hey, don’t take my word for it. Here is an 11-year sample size of new team free agent contracts along the offensive line that paid a veteran OL at least 3.5% of that year’s salary cap as the average annual salary for the contract. You tell me what YOU see.
As a rudimentary measure of player performance, each player has the number of Pro Bowls they were selected to, their single-season high “Approximate Value” from Pro Football Reference and their single-season high Pro Football Focus grade; plus whether the veteran was within 2 years of playing his last snap in the NFL at the time of signing.
Top Of Market Spending On OL (2013-Present)
Perhaps the most prominent note here? A jarring statistic:
NFL franchises signing a new free agent offensive lineman to a big-money contract (3.5% of that season’s cap AAV) over the last decade have nearly equal odds of getting a Pro Bowl (20 players) as they do a retirement (17).
But there’s a silver lining for the Dolphins amid the intimidating data about open market, big money spending along the offensive line: Miami needs interior help, where success stories are easier to find.
Terron Armstead, rightfully or not, is the ONLY offensive tackle to sign with a new team on an average pay rate of 3.5% or more of that year’s cap total in the last eleven years to post multiple Pro-Bowl honors with his new team. Brandon Albert (Miami), Russell Okung (with the Chargers on his contract from Denver), Andrew Whitworth (Rams) and Trent Brown (Raiders) are the only other offensive tackles to log a single Pro Bowl appearance after signing a qualifying new contract.
The other 24 Pro Bowl appearances from qualifying offensive linemen have come from interior players. I’m not a math guy, but I can tell you 80% of Pro Bowl appearances over the last decade+ have come from interior play. That bodes well for any franchise eyeing Robert Hunt as their big offseason signing. But it also bodes well for Miami’s chances of securing a viable replacement.
Of course, Pro Bowls aren’t a super efficient qualifying measure of play. Neither is Approximate Value or a PFF season grade. But the commonalities between all three are, at the very least, notable. The Pro Bowl representatives from the past 11 years posted a single-season ‘Approximate Value’ total of nearly 2x the non-Pro Bowl signings (11.05 versus 6.8). And the same split offered a best single-season PFF grade difference of 81.6 for Pro Bowlers and 68.1 for non-Pro Bowlers.
So what are the common themes for spending and how can the Dolphins apply it?
Cap Percentage and Positional Value
The average “boom” signing with a new team averaged a salary cap allocation for the AAV of the contract of 6.2%. That is, in 2024 figures, is nearly a $16M average annual salary. If that feels steep, it is. The other qualifying OL signings average a full percentage point lower on the annual average of the contract — 5.12% (a $13M annual average salary in 2024 dollars).
Can the Dolphins stomach such a heavy load into a single talent with their number crunching and budgeting of 2024?
5% is probably pushing it. But there’s some common themes that paint a prettier picture for Miami. Guards who qualified for at least one Pro Bowl since 2013 and signed with a new team on a deal worth at least 3.5% of that year’s cap as the average annual salary? The average drops from 6.2% to 5.6%; a number that is dramatically boosted by two monster contracts for Joe Thuney (8.77% of the cap AAV) and Kelechi Osemele (7.54%). No other guard was over 6%, with several under 5%.
As a contrast, “boom” signings at offensive tackle with a new team required an average AAV commitment of 7.63%. That’s $19.5M AAV in today’s market.
All of this puts Miami into a viable range to spend *wisely* (spare me your Chris Grier skepticism jokes and masochistic commentary, please. I don’t have the strength today…) and still hit a successful personnel move; while also becoming more economic than the expected spending range that reportedly awaits Robert Hunt.
So what direction does that push Miami?
Look for scheme specific talents and, regrettably, players with less than 17 games played annually the last season or two. That is how and where Miami can dip into the pool and find talent that transcends expected spending with everyone across the league playing with all of this extra unexpected salary cap.
Let’s take a look at the interior OL market as I graded them this past month for ‘Touchdown, Miami!’ and Locked On Dolphins.
You’re not missing anything in Tier 1 (empty) and Tier 2 (Connor Williams & Robert Hunt). Perhaps the most controversial ranking through the rest of the quality starters (Tier 3) through quality depth options (Tier 6) is that of Los Angeles Rams guard Kevin Dotson, who I simply am not sure is a great fit for the current iteration of Miami’s offense. If you disagree, totally fine.
That said, he’s likely to price himself out of Miami’s range after the season he just had anyway. Skill specific talents that could fit the fundamentals of Miami’s offense?
Center Andre James, Las Vegas Raiders
Center Aaron Brewer, Tennessee Titans
Center Coleman Shelton, Los Angeles Rams
Guard Jon Runyan Jr., Green Bay Packers
Athleticism at center and lateral mobility & fluidity have been essential to Miami’s perimeter runs and their explosive run rate. The drop off from Connor Williams to Liam Eichenberg was notable — and then notable again when Eichenberg’s play faded while playing hurt late in the year.
Injury discounts available on the market?
Guard Jonah Jackson, Detroit Lions
Center Tyler Biadasz, Dallas Cowboys
Center Brian Allen, Los Angeles Rams
Jackson is comfortably the best talent in this category; but he’s missed 4 and 5 games apiece in each of the last two seasons. Is the juice worth the squeeze for Miami after their lack of continuity on the offensive line in 2024? I vote no, personally. Biadasz has missed one game in each of the last two seasons but does have a Pro Bowl to his name in 2022. Allen, on the other hand, is on a career downturn with just 7 starts in the last two seasons combined.
But here’s the deal. If the Miami Dolphins want to target an impactful signing in free agency without going to the top of the market, there is one obvious name to my eye. It isn’t a bargain bin injury buy, nor is it a scheme specific talent.
It is Seattle’s Damien Lewis.
Lewis has started 61 games in four seasons with the Seahawks. He’s a 6-foot-2, 327 pound bowling ball who offers the raw power of Robert Hunt in close quarters without the offensive tackle frame that Hunt has. And while he doesn’t necessarily move like Hunt (which makes Hunt a scheme transcendent talent who should have a robust market), Lewis is a good enough mover to fit the scheme. Think Laken Tomlinson with the 49ers four or five years ago (READ: NOT New York Jets Laken Tomlinson).
His projected market is less intimidating than Hunt’s — pinning him squarely into Miami’s sweet spot: a meaningful signing that should qualify him for the offensive line market research we’ve explored here…but outside of the upper echelons of spending that Miami simply isn’t prepared to pursue this upcoming offseason.
Odds and recent history suggest that might just be the kind of investment Miami can come out the other side a winner on in this year’s OL market.