2024 Free Agent Class Further Amplifies Risk Of Paying Top Dollar For A Starting OL

Many Dolphins fans were hopeful that Miami would dump some serious dollars into the offensive line this offseason to provide some solutions to 2023 struggles. The actual FA class amplifies the risks.

If the lede here sounds familiar, allow me to confess. I did this show for Locked On Dolphins last offseason when many fans around the team wanted to see Miami spend big on offensive linemen. That, of course, didn’t happen. Miami ran it back with their top-5 OL from 2022 into the 2023 season with only one new modest signing, OL Isaiah Wynn, added to their ranks.

And while Wynn was good for his seven (technically six) game tenure as a starter at left guard, he was out of the lineup for the final 10 games of the season. Heck, just about everyone not named Austin Jackson missed half the year.

And with all of those interruptions to Miami’s front, the line struggled down the stretch. Which leads us back to the frame of mind many Dolphins fans had 12 months ago — being frustrated and hopeful for more spending.

Well…I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but your investment opportunities for big additions have come and gone. Miami has added to the trenches—they’ve pegged Aaron Brewer as the replacement for center Connor Williams and drafted Houston OT Patrick Paul in the 2nd round to serve as the presumed long-term replacement for Terron Armstead. But the guard spots? Not only has Miami treaded water there, but they’ve actually lost ground from 2023 due to the departure of Robert Hunt.

He has yet to be sufficiently replaced.

But given the money Carolina threw at Hunt and a potential replacement in Damien Lewis, it is understandable that Miami showed apprehension in bringing back Hunt no matter what. Because the actual track record for such a signing is scary, to say the least. My initial research from the spring of 2023 indicated that a new team signing a free agent OL to a contract equal to 3.5% or more of that year’s salary cap had nearly an equal chance of being within 2 years of their final snap in the NFL and making a Pro Bowl.

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The Locked On Dolphins 2023 Spotlight of OL free agency spending

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Adding the 2024 free agent class (and grading Year 1 of the 2023 free agent class) only further amplifies the risks. Of the 2023 free agent OL to sign with a new team, arguably only one of them lived up to their billing and investment financially:

• Jawaan Taylor, Kansas City Chiefs - 47 pressures allowed & 20 penalties assessed against

• Mike McGlinchey, Denver Broncos - Ranked in the bottom 15 of NFL OTs with 500+ snaps for sacks allowed (6), pressures (49), & penalties (9)

• Orlando Brown Jr., Cincinnati Bengals - 59 pressures allowed (most among NFL OTs in 2023)

• Ben Powers, Denver Broncos - 33rd out of 65 qualifying guards (500+ snaps) in pass block efficiency in 2023

• Nate Davis, Chicago Bears - 9th worst Pass Blocking Efficiency among OGs with 500+ snaps and 11 total penalties called (5 declined/negated)

• Andre Dillard, Tennessee Titans - Most sacks allowed by any OT in 2023 (12) on 562 snaps, cut by Titans this offseason

• Isaac Seumalo, Pittsburgh Steelers - No sacks allowed, 1 penalty assessed against in 2023

• Andrew Wylie, Washington Commanders - T-4th most sacks allowed by any OT in 2023 (9)

Financially speaking, Taylor signed for nearly 9% of the 2023 cap with his $20M annual average (AAV). McGlinchey and Brown Jr. were over 7% apiece. These are big investments with big questions. And when you extend the scope to include the 2024 free agency class, I’m admittedly a bit more lenient and understanding of why Miami opted to stay out of this end of the pool.

Below is the full 12-year sample size of 3.5%+ of the cap AAV contracts in OL free agency, including how many Pro Bowls they made after signing that contract, their single-season best in both PFF Grade and Approximate Value (Pro Football Reference), and whether or not they were within two years of their final snap in the NFL upon signing.

(NOTE: Player extensions are not included here — only deal where the final year of the contract has expired)